The generic ballot - a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates - has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections.
A McConnell-aligned "dark money" group is set to pour $17 million into Georgia ads this summer - about 40% of its nationwide spending, and a substantial sum to drop on one race before Labor Day.Sign up: Free daily newsletter Sign up! Projecting 2022 through the House generic ballot.Walker has agreed to debate Warnock, and Democrats are expected to turn up the heat with massive ad buys scrutinizing his troubled past and lack of experience. He's also completely untested, dominating the GOP primary without showing up to any of the debates.Walker is a unicorn: The college-football great is one of two non-incumbent candidates nationwide who has been endorsed by both former President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. All eyes will again be on Georgia this fall, as two Black candidates - Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker - face off for the first time in the state's history.Table: Simran Parwani/Axiosĭemocrats won control of the Senate last year with a pair of stunning runoff victories in Georgia, allowing President Biden to pass his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package with a needle-thin majority. Senate: All eyes on Georgiaĭata: Cook Political Report. The bottom line: Some of the most competitive House races are playing out across several battleground states with huge impacts on the 2024 presidential election, like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. The only path to survival for those Democrats may be to go "scorched earth" against still-undefined Republican challengers - which, at this point in the race, includes essentially all first-time candidates.
Those orphan states include California, Indiana, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, Washington - and arguably New York, Wasserman tells Axios.He points to races in New York, Michigan, Arizona and California: "That's where you’re going to see a lot of money spent."īetween the lines: Wasserman says the situation is especially perilous for House Democrats facing tight races in "orphan states," where there's no competitive statewide election driving turnout.What to watch: "The most competitive states this cycle are those where a court or commission drew a congressional map as opposed to a partisan one," Cook's U.S. Polling shows Republicans are winning the generic congressional ballot (Would you rather vote for a Democrat or a Republican?) by an average of 1.9 points - and they have still room to grow.President Biden's approval has been hovering in the low 40s for several months, with inflation driving down his popularity.